1) A bombing campaign would undoubtedly result in many civilian deaths and injuries. Security analyst Anthony Cordesman recently reported that the bombing plans probably include 1500 so-called “surgical” strikes. Given the dispersal of Iran 's nuclear program at sites throughout the country and their proximity to urban centers, civilian casualties will be massive.
2) “Government repression” is one of the administration’s justification for action against Iran, however, even Iranian dissidents are against a U.S. attack. Every time the U.S. tries to “help” dissidents in Iran , government repression comes down harder. A bombing campaign is the last thing a democracy movement needs.
3) Even the most dire estimates - by experts - of Iran ’s bomb-making ability suggest they’re 3-5 years from making one bomb. Diplomacy should be given time to work rather than rushing to war.
4) The November 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) confirmed the International Atomic Energy Agency finding that Iran has no nuclear weapons program. Some U.S. and European officials disagree, but the IAEA has a workplan in place with Iran and is making progress on outstanding issues. The only evidence of a weapons program the administration will point to is the enrichment of uranium, which is allowed under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Enriched uranium is necessary for both electricity production and for nuclear weapons. The U.S. and others would prefer that Iran obtain enriched uranium from other countries. Other countries which are known to currently produce enriched uranium are Brazil , China , France , Germany , India, Japan , the Netherlands , Pakistan , Russia , the United Kingdom and the United States . The NIE states that it could take Iran as long as until 2015 to assemble enough enriched uranium for a weapon.
5) An attack on Iran will ignite regional, and perhaps global, chaos. Russia and China are not likely to stand by.
6) Our military bases in the Mideast are sitting ducks for Iran ’s existing missiles. An attack would not support our troops.
7) Military action to eliminate nuclear weapons risks reinforcing the desire of the Government of Iran to acquire a nuclear deterrent.
8) U.S. military action in a third Muslim country would be a recruiting godsend to extremist groups like al-Qaida.
9). Any hopes for progress toward Israeli-Palestinian accord would be wiped out, while anti-Israeli actions by Hezbollah and Hamas would be stepped up.
10) After an attack, Iran will likely use military options to close the Straits of Hormuz, blocking the westward flow of oil and result in $6 a gallon gasoline, and drastically damage the U.S. economy.
11) The bi-partisan Iraq Study Group Report states `Iran's interests would not be served by a failure of U.S. policy that led to chaos and the territorial disintegration of the Iraqi state', and therefore, the Government of the United States should build upon this mutual interest to develop a diplomatic dialogue with the Government of Iran concerning deteriorating conditions in Iraq, which can become a basis of broader future United States-Iranian engagement. Specifically, Recommendation 9 of the Iraq Study Group Report, states: “Under the aegis of the New Diplomatic Offensive and the [Iraq International] Support Group, the United States should engage directly with Iran and Syria in order to try to obtain their commitment to constructive policies toward Iraq and other regional issues. In engaging with Syria and Iran , the United States should consider incentives, as well as disincentives, in seeking constructive results.”
12) Direct, unconditional talks become more important but less likely, as sanctions become tougher. There is recent precedent suggesting that unconditional talks would be productive. After 9/11/01, there was a period when Iran was our ally. The US envoy to Afghanistan said that no nation was more helpful in setting up a constitutional government than Iran . Immediately following that, the administration put them on the official “Axis of Evil” list. Despite a subsequent overture in a letter to the U.S. government, and a visit by the Iranian president, the only U.S. responses have been sanctions and threats of military action.
13) A broadening war will likely result in a military draft.
